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Survivors of the NEXT NZ DISASTER won’t have a chance!

Posted by te2ataria on February 4, 2012

We are told:

More magma lurking underneath NZ islands than the combined total of Hawaii Islands and Iceland

Blog moderators have been advised that a sea of boiling magma lurking beneath New Zealand islands, waiting to explode to the surface, dwarfs the total amount of boiling rock under all the Hawaii islands and Iceland combined.

Now read this: “The future looks more optimistic.”

Christchurch’s ‘1 per cent’ chance of big quake

Dr Kelvin Berryman, explains the chance of future quakes for the Canterbury region using the latest GNS quake forecast model.

Previous earthquake forecasts for Canterbury have been a little “pessimistic”, a scientist says.

Dr Kelvin Berryman, of GNS Science, said today there was a 1 per cent chance of a magnitude-7.0 or higher earthquake in the next year.

The figures, released by the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (Cera) today, were based on a model devised by scientists from the United states, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand.

They are forecasts for the 12 months to January 15, 2013, and show that quakes will continue to be a feature in Canterbury for decades.

There was a 13 per cent chance of a magnitude-6.0 to 6.4 quake, down 17 per cent from the previous model, and a 82 per cent chance of a 5.0 to 5.4 quake within the year, Berryman said.

He said there was a “pretty good chance” there was a low probability of having a quake higher than 6.0.

The figures were all subject to change as quakes happened and the model changed, he said.

The forecast probability of damaging quakes in Canterbury during and after rebuilding in the region was reduced by 20 per cent compared with earlier forecasts, Berryman said.

The future looks more optimistic.

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One Response to “Survivors of the NEXT NZ DISASTER won’t have a chance!”

  1. te2ataria said

    August 2012 – Tongariro erupted for the first time in 115 years on 6 August at 1.50pm
    November 21 – Eruption occurred at Te Maari crater about 1.25pm.

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